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NFLX
1/17/2019 11:01am
Fly Intel: What to watch in Netflix earnings report

Netflix (NFLX) is scheduled to report results of its fourth fiscal quarter after market close on January 17, with a conference call scheduled for 6:00 pm ET. What to watch:

1. PRICE HIKE IMPACT: Netflix has confirmed through press reports that it is raising prices for U.S. subscribers and in 40 markets where it bills in U.S. dollars, including Mexico and Brazil. Netflix is raising its U.S. prices by 13%-18%, its biggest increase since the company launched its streaming service twelve years ago, according to the Associated Press. The price of the most popular plan will see the largest hike, increasing to $13 per month from $11 per month, while its cheapest plan is going up by $1 to $9 per month, the publication noted. Investors will certainly be listening to see what the company says regarding how the price hikes are expected to impact subscriber metrics, revenues and spending plans.

2. STREET RATINGS, TARGETS RAISED: In recent days, several Wall Street analysts have been voicing more bullish views on Netflix. Within the last week, Netflix was upgraded to Buy from Neutral by UBS analyst Eric Sheridan, who said he is "taking the blindfold off" after six months of stock underperformance. The analyst sees share upside over the near-to-medium term to subscriber growth, adding that current subscriber metrics such as growth, churn, spend and consumption are tracking inline to better than management's Q4 guidance and commentary, according to his firm's Evidence Lab. Raymond James analyst Justin Patterson upgraded Netflix to Strong Buy from Outperform as well, telling investors in a research note of his own that Netflix is "approaching a profit inflection." Goldman Sachs analyst Heath Terry noted that While any price increase is likely to be followed by increased churn, Terry believes Netflix's value and strong upcoming content slate will largely offset that. He also thinks that the increasing value in the basic single stream plan will likely drive down password sharing. He raised his price target on Netflix shares to $420 from $400, keeps a Buy rating on the stock and maintains Netflix on the firm's Conviction List. Baird analyst William Power also views the Netflix price increases positively, but questions to what degree they improve the current expectations for free cash flow versus covering rising content costs. The analyst said he expects solid Q4 results, but noted that expectations have been rising. Power maintained his Neutral rating and $380 price target on Netflix shares.

3. SHIFT IN FOCUS TO PAID MEMBERSHIPS: Netflix's subscriber numbers are a closely-watched measure of the company's growth trajectory. Last quarter, the company reported streaming net additions of 6.96M members, stating that U.S. memberships rose by 1.09M and international added 5.87M memberships. For Q4, Netflix has forecast paid net additions of 7.6M and total net additions of 9.4M members. Netflix stated in its quarterly letter that "because growth in paid memberships is more steady, our forecast for paid net adds has been historically more accurate than our total net adds forecast... In addition, we are learning that no free trial may result in greater revenue in some markets, so free trial count at the end of a quarter will likely be a less insightful predictor of future growth than in the past. As a result, starting with our earnings report in January 2019, we'll only guide to paid memberships; a year after that, in 2020, we'll cease reporting on end-of-quarter free trial count."

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